Heather MacDonald is the author of “The War on Cops” and “The Diversity Delusion”. After the initial Ferguson Riots and the birth of the “Black Lives Matter” movement, she coined the term “Ferguson Effect” to describe the deadly effect BLM and de-policing have on vulnerable minority communities. Since the George Floyd riots, the murder rates in US cities have spiked an average of 30%. Gateway Pundit spoke to Heather MacDonald about the Derek Chauvin trial and what it will mean for the US in the future.
By Richard Abelson
You coined the phrase “Ferguson Effect”. What will the “George Floyd Effect” be?
The “Ferguson Effect” refers to the twin phenomena of officers backing off from discretionary proactive enforcement under the accusation that such enforcement is racist, and the resulting emboldening of criminals. The first iteration of the Ferguson Effect in 2015 and 2016, following the police shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri in 2014, led to the largest two year increase in homicides in 50 years. Another 2000 blacks died of homicide over those two years compared to the benchmark of 2014.
The George Floyd Effect dwarfs anything seen so far. 2020 saw the largest percentage increase in homicides in U.S. history. Over 2000 more blacks have been killed in drive-by shootings in 2020 compared to the already high benchmark of 2019. When final tallies come in, there will likely have been about 8500 black homicide victims in 2020, more than all white and Hispanic homicide victims combined, even though blacks are only 12% of the U.S. population.
Four dozen black children were gunned down fatally in 2020 in their beds, living rooms, and front porches; at birthday parties and barbecues; while sitting in their parents’ car. Not a single one of those child victims drew a protest from Black Lives Matter activists because their killers were all black. Likewise, the vast majority of black adult homicide victims are killed by other blacks, which is why they are ignored by the media and by left-wing politicians.
The police could end all fatal shootings tomorrow and it would have a negligible impact on the black death by homicide rate. Every year the police kill about 1000 people, the vast majority of whom are armed and dangerous. Whites make up about 50% of those police-shooting victims; blacks about 23-25%–again, almost all those police-shooting victims posing a violent threat to the officer or to bystanders. In 2020, the police fatally shot 18 allegedly “unarmed” blacks (and 24 “unarmed” whites)—unarmed being defined liberally to include suspects grabbing the officer’s gun or fleeing in a stolen car with a loaded revolver on the seat next to them. Those 18 “unarmed” blacks make up .2% of black homicide victims in 2020, and a percentage of the 40 million black US population too small to calculate.
Blacks between the ages of 10 and 43 die of homicide in the U.S. at 13 times the rate of whites—killed not by the police, not by whites, but by other blacks. Indeed, interracial rates of violent crime skew massively towards black-on-white crime, contrary to the “White Supremacist” narrative. Blacks commit 88% of all interracial non-fatal violent crime between whites and blacks and between black and whites.
The George Floyd Effect is continuing into 2021 unabated, with city after city reporting its highest crime totals in decades. While the victims remain overwhelmingly black, the violence is spilling over into the suburbs, especially with carjackings. Drivers are being run over, dragged while hanging out the door, and shot. Chicago set up protected times at gas stations when drivers could fill up their cars under police protection without having to fear getting carjacked.
Because the U.S. turns its eyes away from the cultural breakdown in the black ghetto and remains in deep ignorance regarding the extent of crime disparities in the U.S. (for example, a black Chicagoan is 50 times more likely to commit a drive-by shooting than a white Chicagoan; blacks in New York City commit 75% of all shootings, though they are 23% of the population, while whites commit less than 2% of shootings though they are 34% of the population), the only thing that will reverse the policy decisions that have led to the George Floyd Effect is when white children start getting mowed down in drive-by shootings.
Have police officers begun to quit?
Police officers are quitting in droves or taking disability leave. Recruiting has become almost impossible. Officers are telling anyone who may be considering a career in policing to forget about it. Why train for a profession when the day you start you are marked as a racist? Officers who get out of their cars to investigate suspicious behavior or to make an arrest in the inner-city find themselves routinely surrounded by hostile jeering crowds, cursing at them, sometimes throwing things. Violent suspects have been primed to resist arrest even more than usual, having been told that the police are racist. It is suspect resistance that leads officers to escalate their own force on a resisting suspect. According to one study, blacks resist arrest at 4 times the rate of whites. The more resistance, the more risk of fatal police shootings, leading to more riots and more depolicing.
Was the trial of Derek Chauvin fair?
Going forward after the Chauvin trial, it is an open question whether any police officer can receive a fair process, free from mob pressure, should he be prosecuted for use of lethal force. The terrified preparations in Minneapolis and elsewhere in anticipation of the verdict—the razor wire and barricades around government buildings, the activation of the National Guard, the declaration in Minnesota of a “peacetime emergency,” the fortified police presence, the curfews, the cancellation of school, the boarded up businesses—all raised serious questions about the rule of law in the United States. Had the jury failed to convict Chauvin on all three counts of murder and manslaughter, the ensuing riots would have made the conflagrations of 2020 look like a Girl Scout campfire
The threat of black rage and riots blackmails American institutions into submission. No one dares speak the truth about the pathological inner-city culture that gives rise to disproportionate criminal behavior and academic failure. Riots are regarded as a natural response to perceived black grievance. Law enforcement responded weakly to the riots of 2020 and 2021 for fear of being perceived as racist. As a result, the anarchy continues.
What do you expect to come of this in the near future?
The near future holds more white-bashing and more craven capitulation to phony charges of white supremacy. Far from being a bigoted country, there is not a single mainstream institution in the U.S. that does not employ massive racial preferences to hire and promote blacks, often with qualifications that would not get an applicant past the door if presented by whites and Asians. But the yawning academic skills gap is also a taboo topic in the U.S.
The only allowable explanation for the lack of racial proportionality in employment and academia is racism; the fact that the average black 12th grader reads at the level of the average white 8th grader is not permissible to notice.
There will be more evisceration of meritocratic standards of achievement in order to avoid the inevitable disparate impact that such colorblind standards have on blacks. And the violence in the streets, whether the daily grind of stupefyingly mindless, brutal drive-by shootings, or the joyful torching of government symbols, courthouses and police cars, the assaults on police officers, and the rapacious looting of stores will escalate. The only thing that will stop the unwinding of Western civilization in the U.S. is the public repudiation of the myth of bias and white supremacy.