Poll: Overwhelming Majority of Congressional Aides Believe Republicans Will Regain House After Midterms


An overwhelming majority of congressional aides, including Democrats, believe that the House Republicans will regain the majority after the midterms, a Punchbowl News poll found.

According to their polling, which is done in conjunction with Locust Street Group, 89 percent of the undisclosed amount of respondents believe Republicans will retake control of the House after the midterm, where the Republicans only have to net five seats.

Punchbowl noted that the percentage is not just carried by the 99 percent of Republican staffers who are confident they will be in the majority come next year, but 80 percent of Democrat staffers believe their party would lose the majority.

However, when asked about the Senate, only 54 percent of the respondents said Republicans would regain control of the upper chamber. Punchbowl noted that Republican staffers carried the “majority” percentage, unlike the general consensus in the House.

Only 26 percent of the Democrat staffers said they would be in the minority after the midterms, while an overwhelming majority of Republican staffers (82 percent) said they would be in the majority.

2022 alert from our Canvass survey of top Capitol Hill aides: 89% of overall respondents said they believe Republicans will win the House.

It’s not just Republicans — a whopping 80% of Democratic staffers said their party would lose the majority come November.

— Punchbowl News (@PunchbowlNews) March 3, 2022

This is mainly due to the Democrat staffers in both chambers (totaling 68 percent) believing that swing voters favor Republicans, which is the “greatest threat to their majority.”

But, 70 percent of the Republican staffers said that a far-right primary opponent is their “greatest concern” since the Republican campaign arms for the House and Senate — the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) — do not get involved in primary elections.

Both parties agree that their prospective parties’ “moderate” members are the “key” to winning a congressional majority. Sixty-eight percent of the Democrat staffers said “moderate” Democrats “are more likely to help preserve their majorities,” while 60 percent of the Republicans staffers said “moderate” Republicans would help them retake Congress.

Punchbowl News previously said the reason for polling aides is “Members of Congress are the ones with the election certificates, but, in many cases, their aides hold outsized power. Senior staffers are the gatekeepers and, in many cases, the decision-makers.”

“Even Democrats know the truth: their majority is doomed. Retire or lose,” NRCC Spokesman Mike Berg said, leaving a simple message for House Democrats trying to run for reelection.

Note: The sample size and dates for the Punchbowl News/Locust Street Group poll were not given.

Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow him on Twitter.

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